Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, November 28

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, November 24	predictability too low
Day 5	Tuesday, November 25	predictability too low
Day 6	Wednesday, November 26	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, November 27	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, November 28	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210951 SPC AC 210951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Fri Nov 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

As a mid-level trough deamplifies and moves from the central Plains to the Midwest on D4/Monday, low-level moisture will advect northward across eastern Texas, Louisiana, and southern Arkansas. Some filtered heating should result in moderate instability by early afternoon with moderate to strong shear. Morning thunderstorms will likely have a stabilizing effect on the northern extent, but south of this activity, a relatively more favorable zone for supercells may exist on Monday afternoon. Relatively weak lapse rates are the primary limiting factor to severe weather probabilities at this time.

On D5/Tuesday, the surface front will stall across Louisiana and Mississippi with weak to moderate instability to its south. Forcing will remain somewhat nebulous, but given persistent moderate shear, a few stronger storms will be possible from eastern Louisiana to northern Alabama.

D6/Wednesday and beyond will feature a strong area of high pressure across much of the eastern CONUS. This will push 60F dewpoints into the Gulf/Atlantic and bring an end to any severe weather threat and potentially any thunderstorm threat east of the Rockies for the remainder of the week.

..Bentley.. 11/21/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, November 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Saturday, November 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 23: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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