Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, November 29

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, November 25	predictability too low
Day 5	Wednesday, November 26	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, November 27	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, November 28	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, November 29	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220854 SPC AC 220854

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 AM CST Sat Nov 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Tue - Southeast

A cold front will continue east across the Southeast on Tuesday as a surface low deepens across the Upper Midwest. This strengthening surface low, will sharpen the cold front during the day as it advances east. Weak to potentially moderate instability is expected across MS/AL ahead of this cold front. Mid-level flow will strengthen through the day and provide ample deep-layer shear for storm organization. A few supercells capable of isolated large hail may be possible. A focused zone of severe weather potential likely exists from central Mississippi to northern Alabama, but probabilities are not high enough to warrant a 15% contour at this time.

Day 5/Wed - East Coast

As this cold front continues east on Wednesday, low 60s dewpoints will continue to advect northward ahead of the cold front. Instability is forecast to remain mostly weak across the Carolinas and into eastern Virginia on Wednesday, but given the strong wind field, some damaging wind gusts may be possible.

High pressure will bring a dry/cool airmass to much of the eastern CONUS by the end of next week which will limit severe weather potential.

Southerly return flow is forecast to resume by next weekend which could eventually lead to renewed severe weather potential across portions of the Southern Plains and eventually the Southeast.

..Bentley.. 11/22/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, November 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, November 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Monday, November 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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