Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, November 30

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, November 26	predictability too low
Day 5	Thursday, November 27	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, November 28	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, November 29	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, November 30	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 230958 SPC AC 230958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Sun Nov 23 2025

Valid 261200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

The warm sector will be onshore at the beginning of the period D4/Wed from the Southeast coast to the Carolinas. This may permit a few thunderstorms along the cold front early Wednesday before the front moves into the Atlantic. In the wake of this front, cool, dry air and high pressure will build across much of the central and eastern CONUS. This will result in minimal thunderstorm activity/severe weather potential Thursday and Friday.

By next weekend, return flow will resume across the southern Plains and thunderstorm chances will increase. Most guidance shows a large trough across the western CONUS by the end of the weekend and into early next week, but the orientation, size, and timing of this trough remains uncertain. Severe weather potential will likely return at some point given the approaching trough and inland moisture intrusion, but uncertainties are too high for severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/23/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, November 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Monday, November 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, November 25: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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