Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, December 1

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, November 27	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, November 28	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, November 29	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, November 30	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, December 1	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240905 SPC AC 240905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Mon Nov 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

Thunderstorm activity should be minimal Thursday and Friday as high pressure ushers in a cool, dry airmass across much of the eastern CONUS. By late Friday night, return flow across Texas may lead to some weak destabilization and thunderstorm chances.

Severe thunderstorms are possible Day6/Saturday to Day8/Monday across the southern Plains as the warm sector expands across Texas and mid-level trough amplifies across the western CONUS. Evolution of this mid-level trough remains uncertain. The GFS, AIGFS, and EC-AIFS all suggest a slower evolution of the trough with a deeper closed low across the Southwest. However, the operational ECMWF is more progressive and would actually suggest an end to severe weather potential by Monday with offshore flow across the Gulf Coast once again. At this time, the consensus pattern for a slower, more amplified trough seems most likely, especially given that previous 12Z and 00Z ECMWF model runs preferred this solution as well.

Severe thunderstorms will be possible with this preferred pattern, but uncertainty in the evolution of the mid-level trough and timing preclude severe weather probabilities at this time.

..Bentley.. 11/24/2025

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National Risk Overview

Monday, November 24: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Tuesday, November 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, November 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, November 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, November 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, November 29: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, November 30: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 1: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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