Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, December 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, December 8	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, December 9	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, December 10	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, December 11	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, December 12	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050908 SPC AC 050908

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0308 AM CST Fri Dec 05 2025

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that at least modestly amplified mid/upper ridging will continue to build and be maintained across the Pacific coast into the Rockies through next week. Within the northwesterly flow downstream of this feature, several digging short wave perturbations appear likely to reinforce large-scale troughing across the eastern U.S., while also contributing to occasional surface cyclogenesis from the lee of the northern Rockies through the northern and middle Atlantic Seaboard. However, these are not likely to be accompanied by a strengthening southerly return flow emanating from the Gulf Basin. Regardless, in the wake of a reinforcing cold intrusion across much of the Florida Peninsula, and through much of the Gulf Basin, early next week, it appears that boundary-layer modification over the Gulf will not become conducive to appreciable inland low-level moisture return.

..Kerr.. 12/05/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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