Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Saturday, December 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, December 9	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, December 10	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, December 11	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, December 12	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, December 13	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060905 SPC AC 060905

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0305 AM CST Sat Dec 06 2025

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of an increasingly prominent blocking high evolving near and to the north of the Aleutians, it appears that the large-scale mid/upper flow pattern may not appreciably change, aside from perhaps some amplification, across North America into next weekend. Models indicate that large-scale mid/upper ridging will generally be maintained across the Pacific Coast through Rockies, with downstream troughing across the Mississippi Valley into western Atlantic.

Short wave developments within this regime are forecast to lead to another notable intrusion of cold/dry air to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Southeast and Gulf Basin, late this coming week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur before Gulf boundary-layer modification, in the wake of the prior cold/dry intrusion, can become potentially supportive of a substantive moist return flow.

..Kerr.. 12/06/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, December 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.