Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, December 22

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, December 18	predictability too low
Day 5	Friday, December 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, December 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, December 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, December 22	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 150949 SPC AC 150949

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0349 AM CST Mon Dec 15 2025

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Thursday - Mid-Mississippi Valley and Lower Ohio Valley to the Southeast

Isolated severe storms are possible on Thursday as moisture expands northward ahead of a strong cold front. Forecast soundings show strong shear across the region, but limited instability as 60+ F dewpoints struggle to make it north of I-20. Given the strength of the low-level jet, some damaging wind gusts are possible, but a greater threat is not anticipated due to the aforementioned limited instability.

D5/Friday - Carolinas to Georgia Coast

Thunderstorms may be ongoing near the Carolina/Georgia coast on Friday morning, but will quickly move into the Atlantic as a cold front advances eastward. In addition, this front will move into the Gulf and push rich moisture well offshore. As a result, thunderstorm potential should be limited for the remainder of the D5 period.

D6/Sat-D7/Sun - TN Valley into the Southeast

Return flow will resume once again across the western Gulf over the weekend. 60F dewpoints are expected to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana. This richer moisture may eventually interact with a southeastward moving cold front at the end of D6 and into D7 with some thunderstorm potential. A few stronger storms may be possible if sufficient instability can develop.

..Bentley.. 12/15/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, December 15: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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