Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, December 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, December 19	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, December 20	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, December 21	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, December 22	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, December 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 160856 SPC AC 160856

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0256 AM CST Tue Dec 16 2025

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

A line of storms will likely be ongoing from portions of the Northeast into the mid-Atlantic and Carolinas Friday morning. If sufficient destabilization can occur, a few isolated damaging wind gusts will be possible before the front moves offshore. In the wake of this cold front, an extended period of low severe potential begins. By Saturday afternoon, moisture is forecast to advect inland across East Texas and Louisiana, but no thunderstorm activity is expected. 60s dewpoints will remain along the Gulf Coast from Texas to inland Louisiana and Mississippi through the weekend and into early next week. However, building heights aloft will limit thunderstorm potential for much of the extended. Even if some thunderstorms occur early next week, as indicated by the 00Z ECMWF across MS/TN, they will likely remain south of the stronger mid-level flow and without strong destabilization, will be unlikely to be severe.

..Bentley.. 12/16/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 16: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Wednesday, December 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, December 18: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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