Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, December 20	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, December 21	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, December 22	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, December 23	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, December 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170957 SPC AC 170957

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0357 AM CST Wed Dec 17 2025

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

Southerly low-level flow will return to the southern Plains on D4/Saturday. This will bring 60sF dewpoints to east Texas and much of Louisiana with weak destabilization anticipated. A few storms may be possible across Louisiana on Saturday night, but shear will be weak. Minimal vertical shear combined with limited forcing and only weak instability will preclude any severe weather threat.

Isolated thunderstorm activity is possible from D5/Sunday through the first half of next week from East Texas and Louisiana into the Ozarks and into the Midwest as slight enhancements of the low-level jet promote isentropic ascent. Through this period, low to mid 60s dewpoints will progressively advance farther inland. However, instability should remain weak as mid-level heights build and mid-level temperatures warm. Therefore, despite the inland moisture early next week, severe weather potential remains low due to weak instability, weak forcing, and building heights aloft.

..Bentley.. 12/17/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Thursday, December 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, December 19: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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