Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, December 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, December 21	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, December 22	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, December 23	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, December 24	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, December 25	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180903 SPC AC 180903

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0303 AM CST Thu Dec 18 2025

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

An expansive area of high pressure will build across the eastern CONUS on D4/Sunday and push a frontal zone near the Gulf Coast. After this, ridging will build across the central CONUS and allow rich moisture to advance well inland from the southern Plains to the Midwest by D7/Wednesday. However, building heights aloft will result in minimal if any forcing for thunderstorm development during this period. Even beyond day 7, model guidance shows decent agreement in a modest ridge breakdown without much severe weather concern.

..Bentley.. 12/18/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 18: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, December 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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