Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Friday, December 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, December 22	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, December 23	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, December 24	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, December 25	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, December 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 191000 SPC AC 191000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Fri Dec 19 2025

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

The large-scale mid-level flow pattern during the upcoming week will feature ridging/anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central U.S., and southwesterly flow with embedded disturbances across the western states. Although low-level moisture will expand north/northeast from the southern Plains and Southeast into the Midwest/OH Valley region during the week, instability will remain generally limited due to warm mid-level temperatures. Overall, the potential for organized severe storms is expected to remain low each day.

..Bunting.. 12/19/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Saturday, December 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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