Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, December 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, December 23	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, December 24	predictability too low
Day 6	Thursday, December 25	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, December 26	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, December 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200836 SPC AC 200836

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0236 AM CST Sat Dec 20 2025

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The large-scale pattern next week will be highlighted by prominent upper ridging and anomalously high 500-mb heights over much of the central to eastern CONUS, with upper troughing developing toward the West Coast by mid/late week. This pattern should considerably limit deep convective potential over much of the CONUS, even while a relatively warm/moist airmass will exist across the Plains and Midwest.

With the approach of a low-latitude upper trough and increasing moisture, thunderstorm potential, potentially including some strong/locally severe storms with gusty winds, could occur across coastal portions of central and southern California during the last half of Wednesday/Day 5 into Thursday/Day 6 Christmas. However, the degree of destabilization and some synoptic-related forecast details remain uncertain.

..Guyer.. 12/20/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, December 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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