Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, December 28

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, December 24	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, December 25	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, December 26	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, December 27	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, December 28	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 210920 SPC AC 210920

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0320 AM CST Sun Dec 21 2025

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model guidance initially shows a pattern featuring an upper ridge over the central CONUS and trough along the West Coast, transitioning to a more progressive flow regime and lowering heights across the Great Plains during the Thursday-Saturday (D5-D7) period. The inland-moving West Coast trough will potentially yield isolated to scattered thunderstorms on Wednesday into early Thursday over portions of southern and central CA and perhaps a localized risk for a couple of stronger thunderstorms. Details concerning this convective scenario and overall magnitude of severe risk preclude severe highlights. Farther east, some moisture return northward into the southern Great Plains and MS Valley through Friday will likely be modulated by frontal advancements during the latter part of extended period.

..Smith.. 12/21/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, December 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, December 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 23: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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