Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, December 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, December 25	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, December 26	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, December 27	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, December 28	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, December 29	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220925 SPC AC 220925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Dec 22 2025

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper-air pattern featuring a ridge over the central states will quickly transition to a more progressive flow regime towards early this weekend. Model guidance implies a split-flow regime potentially evolving with troughing over the Great Lakes towards the Sunday-Monday timeframe (D7-D8). Overall limited potential for organized severe seemingly exists for much of the extended period. Some indication for a moist sector evolving ahead of the amplifying Great Lakes' trough could yield some severe risk, but predictability is low and highly uncertain given model spread at this point in time.

..Smith.. 12/22/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, December 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 24: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Thursday, December 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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