Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, December 31

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, December 27	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, December 28	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, December 29	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, December 30	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, December 31	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240942 SPC AC 240942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Wed Dec 24 2025

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

This weekend, a mid-level ridge will move from the mid Mississippi Valley eastward to the Atlantic Seaboard, as a trough digs southeastward into the north-central U.S. A moist airmass will advect northeastward into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, ahead of a cold front moving through the mid Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm development, mostly post-frontal in nature, will be possible Sunday afternoon from the Arkansas River Valley northeastward into the Ohio Valley. Although an isolated severe threat may develop, the storms should be elevated and the threat will be limited by weak instability. On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move to the southern Atlantic Seaboard, with a dry and cool airmass residing over much of the nation. This dry airmass is forecast to remain in place through mid-week, keeping the chance for thunderstorms low across the continental U.S.

..Broyles.. 12/24/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 24: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Thursday, December 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, December 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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