Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Thursday, January 1

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, December 28	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, December 29	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, December 30	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, December 31	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, January 1	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 250946 SPC AC 250946

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0346 AM CST Thu Dec 25 2025

Valid 281200Z - 021200Z

DISCUSSION

A mid-level trough is forecast to move eastward across the central U.S. on Sunday, as an associated cold front advances southeastward into the Ozarks and mid Mississippi Valley. Near the front, scattered thunderstorms are expected by afternoon from the Ark-La-Tex northeastward into the lower Ohio Valley. Any severe threat will likely remain marginal due to weak instability, and a tendency for storms to be post-frontal.

From Monday to Thursday, the mid-level trough is forecast to gradually move eastward across the central and eastern U.S., eventually reaching the western Atlantic by Thursday. In its wake, a cool and dry airmass is forecast to overspread much of the continental U.S., making conditions unfavorable for thunderstorms in most areas.

..Broyles.. 12/25/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, December 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, December 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 27: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.