Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Friday, January 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, December 29	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, December 30	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, December 31	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, January 1	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, January 2	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260853 SPC AC 260853

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 AM CST Fri Dec 26 2025

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

D4/Monday will feature conditionally favorable strong low to mid-level flow along/ahead of a cold front moving east across the Southeast. The intense eastern Great Lakes/southeast ON cyclone should occlude as a secondary cyclone forms along coastal ME into the Canadian Maritimes. Guidance is fairly consistent for this time frame with indications of minimal instability along the trailing portion of the cold front, as well as diminishing large-scale ascent/convective signal through the day. Severe thunderstorm wind probabilities appear at or below 5 percent.

The continental airmass spreading across the Gulf in the wake of the frontal passage should yield minimal severe potential mid-week. Towards late week, return flow will support airmass modification along the western Gulf Coast. The EC-AIFS hints at a low-amplitude shortwave impulse in the D8/Friday time frame, which could support a return to non-negligible severe potential.

..Grams.. 12/26/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, December 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, December 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 28: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.