Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, January 3

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, December 30	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, December 31	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 1	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 2	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 3	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 270842 SPC AC 270842

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0242 AM CST Sat Dec 27 2025

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

DISCUSSION

A quiescent pattern is expected mid-week, in the wake of a D2-3 continental air mass intrusion across much of the Gulf. Return flow and air mass modification will ensue late week into next weekend. Run-to-run predictability remains low by this time frame, but some models suggest a southern-stream shortwave trough could interact with this moistening plume. This may support non-negligible severe potential over the western Gulf States towards D8. Even this scenario appears to be of sufficiently marginal amplitude, outside of a singular 00Z CMC outlier, to likely yield low severe probabilities through next Saturday. GEFS-based SPC-CSU and NSSL ML guidance are in alignment with sub-5 percent severe probs on D8.

..Grams.. 12/27/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, December 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, December 28: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, December 29: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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