Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, January 4

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, December 31	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, January 1	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, January 2	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, January 3	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, January 4	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 280838 SPC AC 280838

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 AM CST Sun Dec 28 2025

Valid 311200Z - 051200Z

DISCUSSION

Return flow will ensue along the western Gulf Coast mid-week, yielding air mass modification from the prior continental intrusion. Bulk of deterministic guidance has trended toward earlier EC-AIFS signals of a low-amplitude shortwave trough progressing east across the southern states through late week. While run-to-run predictability and spread across models remains subpar, convective potential should increase by D6-7/Friday-Saturday across parts of the Gulf Coast States. At this point, with only modest cyclogenesis consistently progged, overall severe potential still appears marginal. Latest ML guidance from SPC-CSU and NSSL for the GEFS, and yesterday's NCAR for the ECENS, support this notion with individual day probabilities holding at 5 percent or less.

..Grams.. 12/28/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, December 28: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, December 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 30: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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