Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Monday, January 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, January 1	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, January 2	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, January 3	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, January 4	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, January 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290911 SPC AC 290911

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0311 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Guidance consensus indicates a lower-amplitude shortwave trough will approach the southern CA coast at 12Z Thursday. This feature appears increasingly likely to progress east across the southern states through late week, initially inducing cyclogenesis over the southern High Plains. This will aid in strengthening low-level moisture return over the western Gulf, after a pervasive continental air mass intrusion today.

Increasing convective potential is anticipated around late D5/Friday to D6/Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into parts of the Deep South. Run-to-run-predictability and spread across guidance remains less-than-ideal for timing/location of amplification/dampening details for this shortwave trough. Bulk of signals are still for a modest surface cyclone and seemingly lower-end severe risk. But there's enough minority signal to warrant concern for a potential 15 percent area in later outlook cycles.

..Grams.. 12/29/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, December 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, December 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 31: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.