Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, January 6

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 2	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 3	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 4	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 5	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 6	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 300847 SPC AC 300847

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0247 AM CST Tue Dec 30 2025

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

DISCUSSION

A return of deep convection remains likely on D4-5/Friday-Saturday across the Gulf Coast States from LA to north FL, and into the Deep South. A low-amplitude shortwave impulse should emanate out of the Southwest and may briefly amplify on D4/Friday over TX, as it becomes absorbed within the broader cyclonic flow regime across eastern North America. Latest guidance has decidedly trended towards dampening this impulse and attendant surface cyclone reflection as they progress across the Gulf Coast States/northern Gulf Friday night into Saturday. This combined with predominately westerly low-level wind profiles may support only a marginal severe threat. After this minor wave, severe potential appears negligible in the D6-8 time frame.

..Grams.. 12/30/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, December 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, December 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 1: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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