Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, January 7

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, January 3	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, January 4	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, January 5	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, January 6	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, January 7	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 310951 SPC AC 310951

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0351 AM CST Wed Dec 31 2025

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

DISCUSSION

Primary severe concern will be across the northeast Gulf Coast States, during the morning to afternoon on D4/Saturday. A lower-amplitude shortwave trough remains consistently progged to dampen as it progresses quickly across the Southeast and northeast Gulf. With a weak surface cyclone, low-level winds should remain veered. But this should be adequate for weak buoyancy to spread east, emanating from the northwest Gulf and LA. With a more robust convective signal closer to the coast compared to D3/Friday, at least a level 1-MRGL risk should be warranted. This is supported by latest SPC-CSU and NSSL GEFS-based ML guidance with overlapping 5 percent probability areas.

Along coastal CA, while run-to-run predictability is poor, latest guidance has some signal for low-topped supercell potential this weekend, downstream of a large-scale trough off the Pacific Coast. This appears generally focused across northern CA on D4/Saturday, shifting to southern CA on D5/Sunday. Spatiotemporal aspects of individual shortwave impulses and attendant mid-level jetlets relative to probable scant/meager buoyancy profiles will be crucial for delineating areal highlights in shorter-term outlooks.

Otherwise, a combination of low potential/predictability remains evident early next week.

..Grams.. 12/31/2025

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, December 31: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 1: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Friday, January 2: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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