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Outlook for Thursday, January 8

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, January 4	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, January 5	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, January 6	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, January 7	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, January 8	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010933 SPC AC 010933

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0333 AM CST Thu Jan 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential appears low through much of the period, with an increase possible late next week. While run-to-run predictability has been poor, latest guidance appears to be trending somewhat more consistently with the evolution of an upper trough off the West Coast. This feature may evolve as a lower-latitude wave across Baja CA and northern Mexico, or along the international border in the Southwest States, before eventually emerging near TX. While predictability is low for spatiotemporal aspects of this wave, it may eventually interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. SPC-CSU GEFS ML probs highlight a 5 percent on D8/Thursday (although seemingly biased too far north). Meanwhile, NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs highlight only a 2 percent on D8, but have a 10 percent on D9/Friday.

..Grams.. 01/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 3: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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