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Outlook for Friday, January 9

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, January 5	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, January 6	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, January 7	predictability too low
Day 7	Thursday, January 8	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, January 9	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020939 SPC AC 020939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Fri Jan 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Convective potential appears likely to increase across at least the South-Central States, centered on eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley mid to late week. While day-to-day predictability is low, the broader signal hints at potentially multiple days of at least low-probability severe during D6-9/Wednesday-Saturday.

Initial concern is with the downstream evolution of a lower-latitude shortwave trough across Baja CA and northwest Mexico early in the week. Guidance continues to struggle with spatiotemporal aspects of this wave by mid-week. But potential exists for this wave to interact with a modifying warm-moist sector from the western Gulf into the South-Central States. Faster guidance indicates severe-storm potential may commence by late Wednesday.

In the wake of the initial shortwave trough, guidance consensus suggests that a broad upper trough should evolve across the West late week. This may yield an expansive swath of fast mid-level southwesterlies from the southern High Plains to the Northeast. Given a lack of frontal intrusion into the northwest Gulf with the lead wave, seasonably rich low-level moisture may overlap a portion of this fast flow regime around Friday-Saturday. Latest NSSL GEFS ML V1.2 probs appear reasonable with depictions of 5 percent peak probs on D6-7, followed by 10 percent areas on D8-9.

..Grams.. 01/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, January 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 3: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, January 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, January 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 7: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, January 8: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, January 9: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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