Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, January 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, January 22	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, January 23	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, January 24	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, January 25	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, January 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190931 SPC AC 190931

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0331 AM CST Mon Jan 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe potential is expected to be low during the Day 4-8 period. Some modest Gulf moisture will impinge on the coastal regions from TX into MS/AL/FL beginning Day 4/Thu. Warm advection will allow for showers and perhaps isolated thunderstorms, but weak forcing for ascent and only very minor instability will preclude severe potential. By Day 5-6/Fri-Sat, a deepening upper trough over the western U.S. will develop east across portions of the Plains and Midwest. A strong arctic cold front will move across the middle of the country, ushering in another punch of cold to very cold air and once again shunting Gulf moisture offshore. Some thunderstorm activity could occur ahead of this front across the Gulf coast states, but deeper moisture return is not expected and will be insufficient for severe storms. Surface high pressure and a cold/stable airmass will persist over much of the CONUS behind the arctic cold front on Days 7-8/Sun-Mon.

..Leitman.. 01/19/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, January 19: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 21: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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