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Outlook for Tuesday, January 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, January 23	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, January 24	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, January 25	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, January 26	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, January 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200852 SPC AC 200852

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0252 AM CST Tue Jan 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

An arctic airmass will settle across much of the CONUS east of the Rockies on Days 4-5/Fri-Sat. Resulting strong high pressure and cold/dry/stable conditions will persist over much of the country throughout the period. However, some thunderstorm potential could develop across portions of the Gulf Coast states/Southeast on Days 4-6/Fri-Sun as a surface cold front progresses east/southeast. Modified Gulf moisture will be in place near the immediate Gulf Coast. Warm advection in the low-levels could result in isolated thunderstorms near or just to the cool side of the cold front Friday afternoon across parts of TX, spreading east/northeast across the Southeast through Saturday and early Sunday. Instability should remain weak as better moisture remains offshore, and due to convection becoming undercut by the cold front.

..Leitman.. 01/20/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, January 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 21: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, January 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, January 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, January 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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