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Outlook for Thursday, January 29

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, January 25	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, January 26	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, January 27	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, January 28	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, January 29	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 220855 SPC AC 220855

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 AM CST Thu Jan 22 2026

Valid 251200Z - 301200Z

DISCUSSION

A surface low over the Deep South on Day 4/Sunday morning will develop east/northeast through early Monday, moving offshore the Carolinas coast. As this occurs, an arctic cold front will continue to push southeast across the Southeast U.S. Ahead of the front, modified Gulf moisture will be in place, supporting weak instability. As an upper trough approaches, large-scale ascent and warm advection atop the surface front will support isolated thunderstorms across southern MS/AL into northern FL and southern GA. Modest instability and poor lapse rates should limit severe potential within the warm sector.

By Day 5/Monday, the cold front will have moved well offshore the Gulf and Atlantic coasts and an arctic airmass will envelop much of the CONUS. Mean troughing is forecast to persist, allowing reinforcing shots of colder air to filter southward east of the Rockies and preclude any return flow across the Gulf basin.

..Leitman.. 01/22/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 22: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 23: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 24: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, January 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, January 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, January 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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