Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, January 31

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, January 27	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, January 28	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, January 29	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, January 30	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, January 31	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 240956 SPC AC 240956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Sat Jan 24 2026

Valid 271200Z - 011200Z

DISCUSSION

Amplified mid-level flow will persist over the US through the remainder of the extended forecast period. Continued troughing in the eastern US will be supported by the arrival of multiple perturbations from southern Canada over the next week. At the same time, strong ridging developing over the West will favor northwesterly flow aloft over the central States. This will allow for multiple reinforcing surges of cold air to replenish a cold, dry and stable air mass. Thus, severe thunderstorms are unlikely through day 8.

..Lyons.. 01/24/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, January 24: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, January 25: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Monday, January 26: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, January 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, January 28: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, January 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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