Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, February 2

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, January 29	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, January 30	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, January 31	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, February 1	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, February 2	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 260958 SPC AC 260958

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0358 AM CST Mon Jan 26 2026

Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather is unlikely through the extended forecast period. A robust Arctic air mass associated with continued troughing over the eastern US will be reinforced by several additional perturbations moving out of Canada and a building western US ridge. As the flow pattern aloft amplifies, surface cyclogenesis appears possible over the eastern Gulf and Atlantic seaboard this weekend, further increasing offshore flow and limiting substantial inland moisture return/destabilization. Thus, thunderstorm potential appears negligible through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/26/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, January 26: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, January 27: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, January 28: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, January 29: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, January 30: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, January 31: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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