Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Thursday, February 5

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 1	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, February 2	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 3	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 4	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 5	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 290942 SPC AC 290942

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0342 AM CST Thu Jan 29 2026

Valid 011200Z - 061200Z

DISCUSSION

Severe weather potential is low through the extended forecast period. A strong upper low embedded within persistent broad-scale troughing over the East will move offshore this weekend with several other perturbations behind it. Continued northwesterly flow aloft and the passage of several cold fronts early next week will reinforce a cool air mass over the central US. This will largely suppress substantial inland moisture return for the foreseeable future. While some thunderstorm potential may exist along the Gulf Coast with a more substantial trough passage later next week, overall thunderstorm/severe potential is very low through the extended forecast period.

..Lyons.. 01/29/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, January 29: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, January 30: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, January 31: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, February 1: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 2: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 3: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.