Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Sunday, February 8

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 4	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 5	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, February 6	potential too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 7	potential too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 8	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 010928 SPC AC 010928

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0328 AM CST Sun Feb 01 2026

Valid 041200Z - 091200Z

DISCUSSION

A midlevel trough and related cold front will move eastward across the Southeast and FL Peninsula on Days 4-5/Wednesday-Thursday. While isolated thunderstorms will be possible along the front as it overspreads the central/eastern Gulf Coast states, limited moisture/buoyancy will keep the severe risk low. Thereafter, strengthening deep-layer northwesterly flow over the MS/OH Valleys will reinforce large-scale troughing over the eastern U.S. and western Atlantic. This will favor a prolonged period of dry, offshore flow – limiting thunderstorm potential across the CONUS.

..Weinman.. 02/01/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 1: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 3: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 4: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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