Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, February 9

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, February 5	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, February 6	potential too low
Day 6	Saturday, February 7	potential too low
Day 7	Sunday, February 8	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, February 9	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 020934 SPC AC 020934

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0334 AM CST Mon Feb 02 2026

Valid 051200Z - 101200Z

DISCUSSION

Broad midlevel troughing will be maintained over the East, while an upper ridge persists over the Great Plains/Rockies through much of the extended forecast period. Farther west, medium-range guidance depicts a midlevel trough/low moving ashore over the West Coast on Day 5/Friday, before continuing eastward across the Southwest and eventually toward the southern Plains. Given the cut-off nature of this disturbance, guidance varies significantly regarding timing, evolution, and downstream moisture return over the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the period. Nevertheless, current indications are that the severe risk will remain low though much of the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/02/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, February 2: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 4: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 5: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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