Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 10

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, February 6	potential too low
Day 5	Saturday, February 7	potential too low
Day 6	Sunday, February 8	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, February 9	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, February 10	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 030939 SPC AC 030939

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0339 AM CST Tue Feb 03 2026

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

DISCUSSION

On the backside of a broad large-scale trough over the East, dry, offshore flow will persist across much of the CONUS through at least Days 5-6/Saturday-Sunday. As a result, thunderstorm potential will be low during this time frame. Thereafter, medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough/low moving eastward across the Southwest/northern Mexico and eventually into the southern Plains by Days 7-8/Monday-Tuesday. However, current indications are that surface high pressure encompassing the eastern half of the CONUS will limit boundary-layer moisture return and overall severe potential.

..Weinman.. 02/03/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 3: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 5: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 6: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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