Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 11

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, February 7	potential too low
Day 5	Sunday, February 8	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, February 9	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, February 10	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, February 11	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 040944 SPC AC 040944

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0344 AM CST Wed Feb 04 2026

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance depicts a low-latitude midlevel trough advancing eastward across parts of Mexico and the Southwest on Days 4-6/Saturday-Monday, before emerging over the southern Plains vicinity around Day 7/Tuesday. While the timing and overall evolution of this feature remain uncertain (given substantial model differences), current indications are that the unconsolidated/split-flow nature of the upper-level pattern and weakly modified Gulf moisture return will limit severe potential.

..Weinman.. 02/04/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 4: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 6: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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