Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, February 12

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 8	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, February 9	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 10	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 11	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 12	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 050956 SPC AC 050956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Thu Feb 05 2026

Valid 081200Z - 131200Z

DISCUSSION

A low-latitude midlevel low will advance eastward across northern Mexico on Days 4-5/Sunday-Monday, before devolving into an open wave and emerging over the southern Plains on Day 6/Tuesday. While thunderstorm potential should increase across the region ahead of this feature, current indications are that weakly modified Gulf moisture will limit appreciable severe potential – especially given modest midlevel lapse rates accompanying the trough.

In the wake of this feature, the upper-level pattern should begin to consolidate and amplify, as a large-scale trough develops over the West. This should eventually favor higher-quality boundary-layer moisture return into the southern Plains and lower MS Valley late in the extended forecast period.

..Weinman.. 02/05/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 5: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 7: ANY SEVERE: low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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