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Outlook for Friday, February 13

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 9	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 10	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 11	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 12	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 13	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 060750 SPC AC 060750

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 AM CST Fri Feb 06 2026

Valid 091200Z - 141200Z

DISCUSSION

An upper low and attendant shortwave trough will be positioned over northern Mexico and AZ/NM on Day 4/Mon. This system will progress eastward across TX and the Gulf Coast states/Southeast through Day 6/Wed. As this occurs, a deepening surface low over the Plains will support southerly returning flow transporting modified Gulf moisture northward into parts of the south-central and southeast states through mid-week. Some increase in thunderstorm potential is possible with this system, though severe potential appears limited by weak instability and warm midlevel temperatures.

By the end of the period, an upper ridge is forecast over the south-central and southeast states, maintaining Gulf moisture from parts of TX into Gulf Coast states on persistent southerly low-level flow. At the same time, an upper trough is forecast to deepen over portions of the Plains and Midwest, and a surface cold front will develop southward toward the Gulf Coast from Thursday night into Friday (Days 7-8). Some increase in thunderstorm potential will be possible, though severe potential is uncertain given poor model run-to-run inconsistency and questions regarding quality of moisture return.

..Leitman.. 02/06/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 6: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, February 8: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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