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Outlook for Saturday, February 14

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, February 10	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, February 11	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, February 12	potential too low
Day 7	Friday, February 13	potential too low
Day 8	Saturday, February 14	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 070851 SPC AC 070851

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0251 AM CST Sat Feb 07 2026

Valid 101200Z - 151200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Tue-Wed – Gulf Coast States

An upper shortwave trough embedded within broader upper ridging across the eastern half of the U.S., will move across the Gulf Coast states Day 4-5/Tue-Wed. Modified Gulf moisture (50s to near 60 F dewpoints) will overspread portions of the south-central and southeast CONUS during this time. The upper trough is expected to weaken as it moves east, and destabilization is expected to remain meager. While some thunderstorm potential could emerge, severe thunderstorms are not expected.

Days 6-8/Thu-Sat - Southern States

Another upper trough is forecast to move across the Southwest on Day 6/Thu, and continue eastward across the Southeast through Day 8/Sun. Quasi-zonal flow/weak upper riding will persist downstream from this feature across the southern Plains into the Southeast, allowing for some degree of modified Gulf moisture to develop near the Gulf Coast vicinity. However, forecast guidance varies in the strength of the developing upper trough, and with regards to potential moisture return across the south-central/southeast states. Some increase in thunderstorm potential may develop by the end of the period across the region, but severe potential appears low/uncertain given large spread among guidance.

..Leitman.. 02/07/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 7: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Sunday, February 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 9: ANY SEVERE: low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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