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Outlook for Sunday, February 15

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 11	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 12	potential too low
Day 6	Friday, February 13	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 14	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 080751 SPC AC 080751

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0151 AM CST Sun Feb 08 2026

Valid 111200Z - 161200Z

DISCUSSION

Some thunderstorm potential is possible on Day 4/Wed across parts of the Gulf Coast states as a weakening upper shortwave trough moves across the Gulf and FL. A cold front will develop southward across the region, and warm advection atop the front, combined with cooling aloft may support isolated thunderstorms. However, instability is expected to remain weak and severe storms are not expected.

Spread among forecast guidance increases heading into the weekend. However, the general pattern suggests upper ridging will move across the Plains and Southeast through Day 6/Fri. Meanwhile, another upper trough will develop over the western U.S., and approach the southern Plains by late Friday. As surface low pressure develops over the southern Plains ahead of the upper trough, southerly low-level flow over the western Gulf will support modest northward transport of at least shallow Gulf moisture into TX and the Gulf Coast states. As the upper trough shifts east across the southern Plains and into the Southeast around Day 7/Sat, some potential for increasing thunderstorm activity is expected. Given a couple days of increasing boundary layer moisture, some low severe risk could accompany the upper trough passage. However, large spread in the timing of this system, and uncertainty regarding quality of moisture return and ensuing destabilization preclude a 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/08/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 8: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Monday, February 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 10: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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