Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Monday, February 16

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, February 12	potential too low
Day 5	Friday, February 13	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, February 14	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 8	Monday, February 16	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 090925 SPC AC 090925

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0325 AM CST Mon Feb 09 2026

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

DISCUSSION

Increasing thunderstorm potential may develop across portions of TX to the Lower MS Valley and Southeast Days 5-7/Fri-Sun. During this period, an upper trough will move across the southern Plains and Southeast U.S. Medium range forecast guidance varies with regard to timing of eastward progression, and how far north 60s F dewpoints will develop ahead of the upper trough and attendant surface low.

Notably, the GFS keeps appreciable instability mostly offshore the Gulf Coast, while ECMWF destabilizes further north into the Gulf Coast states during the weekend. Meanwhile, SPC GEFS and other ML guidance depicts only minor severe probability areas. Given the current forecast strength and track of the associated surface cyclone across the Lower MS Valley/Southeast, at least some low-end potential for severe thunderstorms seems possible. Nevertheless, the aforementioned uncertainties, and expected modest thermodynamic environment even if Gulf moisture spreads further inland, precludes 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

..Leitman.. 02/09/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Monday, February 9: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Tuesday, February 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 11: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.