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Outlook for Tuesday, February 17

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, February 13	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, February 14	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 7	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 100901 SPC AC 100901

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0301 AM CST Tue Feb 10 2026

Valid 131200Z - 181200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-6/Fri-Sun – TX into the Southeast

An upper trough is forecast to spread eastward from the Southwest into the Southeast Days 4-6/Fri-Sun. Beginning on Day 4/Friday, southwesterly flow will overspread the southern Plains ahead of the trough and surface low pressure is expected to develop over western TX. As the system spreads east through the weekend, Gulf moisture (upper 50s to low 60s F dewpoints) will overspread much of central to eastern TX toward the Lower MS Valley and Deep South. Some model spread persists with regards to the timing of eastward progression of the upper trough, and exact latitude of the surface low (some guidance clustering further south, other guidance a bit further north), which will impact quality of moisture return. Regardless, at least weak destabilization should accompany boundary layer moistening and cooling aloft amid strengthening deep-layer southwesterly flow.

Some low-end severe potential is possible from Friday evening through Saturday across portions of TX, and into the Lower MS Valley/Deep South Saturday night through Sunday. However, overall severe potential will likely be limited by weak destabilization, a somewhat cool boundary layer, and questionable moisture return this early in the season, precluding 15 percent severe delineation.

..Leitman.. 02/10/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 10: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 12: ANY SEVERE: low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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