Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 18

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, February 14	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 6	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, February 17	predictability too low
Day 8	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 110929 SPC AC 110929

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0329 AM CST Wed Feb 11 2026

Valid 141200Z - 191200Z

DISCUSSION

Days 4-5/Sat-Sun – Texas to the Southeast

An upper trough will move from the southern High Plains early Day 4/Saturday, eastward across the Deep South/Southeast states through Day 5/Sunday. An associated belt of enhanced southwesterly flow ahead of the trough will overspread increasing boundary layer moisture within a low-level warm advection regime. Meanwhile, a surface low near the OK/TX Red River Valley early Saturday will deepen as it shifts east to the TN valley by Sunday morning, before moving offshore the NC/Mid-Atlantic coast Sunday night. Widespread showers and scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop within the warm advection regime ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front, first across eastern TX to the Lower MS Valley on Saturday/Saturday night, and continuing across portions of the Deep South and Southeast on Sunday.

Severe potential remains uncertain, though at least some low-end severe hazards appear possible given at least some weak destabilization across the moderate to strongly sheared warm sector. However, the northern extent of any higher-quality Gulf moisture is unclear given longitudinal spread among guidance with the placement of the surface low. Furthermore, given the neutral to positive-tilt trough and deep-layer flow parallel to the surface boundary, training precipitation could further limit destabilization. These uncertainties preclude 15 percent severe delineation at this time.

Days 6-8/Mon-Wed

Upper ridging is forecast to move from the Plains to the eastern U.S. on Day 6/Monday in the wake of the departing upper trough from the weekend. Model spread increases considerably by the end of the period, though various guidance hints at a continued progressive upper pattern, with some potential for another trough developing over the West early next week. Overall, predictability is low beyond Monday.

..Leitman.. 02/11/2026

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National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 11: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 13: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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