Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, February 19

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 15	predictability too low
Day 5	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 18	predictability too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 120906 SPC AC 120906

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0306 AM CST Thu Feb 12 2026

Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

DISCUSSION

Day 4/Sun – Deep South/Southeast

An upper trough will move across the Deep South and Southeast on Day 4/Sun. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow atop a modestly moist boundary layer will support weak destabilization, though how much remains uncertain as ongoing convection and cloud cover could limit instability. Some risk for strong to isolated severe storms seems most likely from southern AL/GA into parts of FL as surface low and trailing cold front move across the region. However, overall risk appears limited by modest thermodynamics and possible widespread heavy rain.

Days 5-8

On Days 5-6/Mon-Tue, upper level ridging is forecast to spread east from the Plains to the Midwest and eastern U.S. By Midweek, medium range guidance generally depicts upper level troughing spreading across the western U.S. and at least some potential for upper shortwave trough ejection into parts of the central U.S. However, forecast spread is large beyond Day 6/Tue. Trends suggest some increase in thunderstorm potential could develop toward the end of the forecast period somewhere in the central U.S./Midwest vicinity, but predictability is low.

..Leitman.. 02/12/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 12: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Friday, February 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Saturday, February 14: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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