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Outlook for Friday, February 20

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 16	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 8	Friday, February 20	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 130959 SPC AC 130959

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0359 AM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Valid 161200Z - 211200Z

DISCUSSION

It appears that a blocking high/ridge may be maintained across the southern mid-latitude east central Pacific (roughly near 150W longitude) through next week. Downstream, the evolution of an increasingly prominent mid-level high is forecast across the Gulf Basin through Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity by the end of next week. However, developments within the branching westerlies across and inland of the Pacific coast remain more unclear, particularly subsequent to some initial consolidation of mid-level troughing near the U.S. Pacific coast by early next week.

Shorter wavelength perturbations emerging from this cyclonic regime are generally forecast to progress across and east-northeast of the Rockies, contributing to periodic lee cyclogenesis. The timing of potentially stronger cyclogenesis has varied within and among the various model output, including one possible developing cyclone across the central Great Plains into portions of the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley during the early into middle portion of next week. Regardless of the strength, however, guidance has been consistent indicating that limited warm sector boundary-layer moisture return will probably tend to inhibit severe thunderstorm development.

Subsequent, renewed (potentially strong) surface cyclogenesis appears possible to the lee of the Rockies later next week. Model spread by that time is notable, but an increasing moist southerly return flow off the Gulf does appear probable, around the western flank of the subtropical ridge.

..Kerr.. 02/13/2026

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National Risk Overview

Friday, February 13: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Saturday, February 14: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 5%
Sunday, February 15: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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