Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Saturday, February 21

Outlook Images

any severe predictability too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Tuesday, February 17	potential too low
Day 5	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 6	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 7	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 8	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 141000 SPC AC 141000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sat Feb 14 2026

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output indicates generally low predictability concerning the evolution of the blocking pattern over the mid-latitude central into eastern Pacific, and downstream developments inland and across North America, through this period. Most certain, at this time, it appears that a fairly significant perturbation emerging from Intermountain West on Tuesday will be accompanied by deep surface troughing overspreading much of the mid/lower Missouri Valley through the Upper Midwest and Ohio Valley, before weakening across the Great Lakes on Wednesday. This will be accompanied by strengthening deep-layer wind fields and shear, conditionally supportive of organized convective development given sufficient destabilization. However, there has been little change from prior model runs, which have indicated that, despite an initially seasonably warm environment across much of the Great Plains and Mississippi Valley, the lack of appreciable Gulf moisture return will inhibit convective potential through at least the middle of next week.

Thereafter, in the mean, a broadly cyclonic to anticyclonic southwesterly regime may characterize the flow into next weekend across the southern Rockies and Great Plains through the Mid Atlantic, to the west-northwest through north of a fairly prominent subtropical high shifting from the Gulf Basin into Bahamas/Caribbean vicinity. It is possible that a short wave embedded within this regime may support significant lee cyclogenesis, as the Gulf boundary layer becomes supportive of a more substantive moist return flow. This, in turn, could become supportive of an increase in potential for severe thunderstorm development, but a clear and consistent signal has yet to emerge in the various medium range guidance.

..Kerr.. 02/14/2026

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National Risk Overview

Saturday, February 14: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Sunday, February 15: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 5%; WIND: 15%
Monday, February 16: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low

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