Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Sunday, February 22

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Wednesday, February 18	potential too low
Day 5	Thursday, February 19	predictability too low
Day 6	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 7	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 8	Sunday, February 22	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 151000 SPC AC 151000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Sun Feb 15 2026

Valid 181200Z - 231200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range model output suggests that amplified large-scale troughing, initially centered near the Pacific coast at the outset of the period, will gradually develop eastward, across and east of the Rockies during the latter half of the week into next weekend. It appears that this will occur in generally piecemeal fashion, as a series of smaller-scale/lower amplitude perturbations. However, given the presence of an initially seasonably warm environment to the lee of the Rockies, potential exists for periodic lee surface cyclogenesis, possible strong.

To this point, guidance has exhibited rather poor predictability with these features, but there does appear at least somewhat greater certainty in potential for substantive surface cyclogenesis by Thursday, across the central Great Plains toward the Great Lakes region. Even so, it still appears that preceding Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will only support limited moistening within the developing warm sector across the middle Mississippi Valley through much of the day Thursday. By Thursday night, there are indications that a modest late moisture surge into the lower Ohio Valley could contribute to increasing convective potential, but the extent of the severe threat remains unclear at this time.

Guidance still indicates that better low-level moisture return may commence ahead of the cold front trailing the cyclone, across parts of the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys through Ark-La-Tex and southern Great Plains Friday into Saturday, as upstream perturbations begin to emerge from the West. However, current model output suggests that renewed cyclogenesis may be more subdued, and it is possible that convection may tend to develop and train along and to the cool side of the front and/or outflow, with uncertain severe weather potential.

..Kerr.. 02/15/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Sunday, February 15: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: low; WIND: 15%
Monday, February 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, February 17: ANY SEVERE: low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.