Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Monday, February 23

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Thursday, February 19	15%
Day 5	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 6	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 7	Sunday, February 22	potential too low
Day 8	Monday, February 23	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 161000 SPC AC 161000

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0400 AM CST Mon Feb 16 2026

Valid 191200Z - 241200Z

DISCUSSION

Medium-range guidance indicates that a sub-1000 mb surface cyclone, centered across the central Great Plains at the outset of the period, may undergo a period of further deepening as it migrates across and northeast of the lower Missouri Valley, toward the Great Lakes, late Thursday afternoon or evening. Perhaps most notable, latest model output appears a bit more aggressive than last night concerning a corridor of warm sector moisture return into the vicinity of the confluence of the Mississippi and Ohio Rivers. It now appears that this may include surface dew points increasing as high as the upper 50s to lower 60s F by around 20/00Z, which may advect at least a bit further east-northeastward through the lower Ohio Valley, before being cut off later Thursday evening. Though still somewhat modest, and perhaps only supportive of CAPE on the order of 500 J/kg, this probably will be conducive to severe thunderstorm development, in the presence of more than sufficient deep-layer shear and large-scale ascent to support organized convection. This may include supercells with potential to produce tornadoes, and perhaps an upscale growing cluster with strong to severe gusts for a period Thursday evening.

It appears that this cyclone will weaken substantively across the Great Lakes region on Friday, with renewed cyclogenesis possible to the east of the Blue Ridge, or perhaps primarily offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast. So, while increasing low-level moisture return may continue into the warm sector across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, the extent to which mid/upper support remains conducive to severe weather potential remains unclear.

By late this coming weekend into at least next Monday, convective potential appears likely to diminish as large-scale mid/upper ridging expands across and east of the Rockies toward the Atlantic Seaboard.

..Kerr.. 02/16/2026

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National Risk Overview

Monday, February 16: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Tuesday, February 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 18: ANY SEVERE: low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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