Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Tuesday, February 24

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Friday, February 20	predictability too low
Day 5	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 6	Sunday, February 22	potential too low
Day 7	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 8	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 170950 SPC AC 170950

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0350 AM CST Tue Feb 17 2026

Valid 201200Z - 251200Z

DISCUSSION

In general, the latest medium-range guidance indicates that an initially notable surface cyclone over the upper Great Lakes region at the outset of the period will undergo substantive weakening, as a supporting short wave impulse becomes sheared and weakens to the south of a blocking mid-level ridge centered over southern Hudson Bay. It appears that secondary cyclogenesis across and offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast Friday through Friday night will be subdued, with a trailing cold front stalling across the southern Atlantic through Gulf coast vicinity into Saturday, near the southern periphery of the seasonably strong westerlies.

Forcing for ascent associated with trailing short wave perturbations, emerging from larger-scale mid-level troughing progressing out of the West, may remain largely to the cool side of the surface frontal zone. However, further moistening along it could support sufficient destabilization for vigorous, perhaps upscale growing and training, thunderstorm development, which could pose at least some risk for producing severe hail and wind. While severe thunderstorm probabilities are being maintained at less than 15 percent in this outlook, it is still possible that this could change in later outlook updates for the Friday/Saturday time period.

Thereafter, amplifying mid/upper flow across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific into North America through early next week appears likely to include building large-scale ridging inland of the Pacific coast through the Mississippi Valley. Beneath the confluent regime in the wake of digging downstream troughing, cold surface ridging is forecast to build southward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin. Associated low-level drying and stabilization probably will tend to limit convective potential through the remainder of the period.

..Kerr.. 02/17/2026

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National Risk Overview

Tuesday, February 17: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Wednesday, February 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 19: ANY SEVERE: 15%
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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