Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Wednesday, February 25

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Saturday, February 21	predictability too low
Day 5	Sunday, February 22	potential too low
Day 6	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 7	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 8	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 180956 SPC AC 180956

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0356 AM CST Wed Feb 18 2026

Valid 211200Z - 261200Z

DISCUSSION

Latest medium-range guidance indicates little further amplification of large-scale mid-level troughing across the eastern mid-latitude Pacific, but a broad embedded cyclonic circulation, with a number of shorter wavelength perturbations pivoting around its periphery, may continue to evolve through this coming weekend. These may be accompanied by multiple areas of surface cyclogenesis, including one cyclone with an occluding front which may advance into northern Pacific coastal areas late Saturday night into early Sunday. However, it appears that the coldest mid-level air, supportive of boundary-layer based destabilization conducive to thunderstorms, might remain offshore.

At the same time, downstream amplification of mid-level ridging may continue across the Rockies and Great Plains Saturday into Sunday, with subsequent amplification of troughing east of the Mississippi Valley through areas offshore of the southern Atlantic Seaboard Sunday through Monday. This is likely to be accompanied by cold surface ridging building south-southeastward to the lee of the Rockies, through much of the Gulf Basin, which probably will suppress convective potential through the remainder of the period.

While the environment may be at least conditionally supportive of strong to severe thunderstorm development along a frontal zone across parts of the eastern Gulf Coast into southern Atlantic Coast early this coming weekend, surface frontal wave development across inland areas on Saturday is forecast to remain weak, tending to minimize this potential.

..Kerr.. 02/18/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Wednesday, February 18: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Thursday, February 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, February 20: ANY SEVERE: low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: predictability too low
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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