Severe Weather Outlook

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Outlook for Thursday, February 26

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Sunday, February 22	potential too low
Day 5	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 6	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 7	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 8	Thursday, February 26	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 190954 SPC AC 190954

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook RESENT 1 NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0354 AM CST Thu Feb 19 2026

Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

DISCUSSION

Downstream of initially amplified mid/upper ridging forecast to expand east of the Rockies through the Mississippi Valley, models indicate that troughing will amplify further, into and across the southern Atlantic Seaboard late this coming weekend into early next week. As it does, much more substantive cyclogenesis appears likely to ensue offshore of the southern Mid Atlantic coast, toward the western north Atlantic, while cold surface ridging builds southward through much of the Gulf Basin before gradually weakening.

Around the same time, and thereafter, guidance indicates that the blocked regime across the central into eastern mid-latitude Pacific will become suppressed. It appears that the initially broad offshore cyclonic mid-level circulation will become more compact, and remain offshore, while flow inland of the Pacific coast through the Atlantic Seaboard trends less amplified and generally west-northwesterly through the middle to latter portion of next week.

Beneath this regime, surface troughing may initially deepen across the Great Plains, before a cold front, associated with a short wave perturbation digging from the higher latitudes, advances south of the Canadian/U.S. border through much of the central and eastern U.S. by the end of the period. However, even by that time, it appears that Gulf boundary-layer moistening and inland return flow will be too limited to support an appreciable risk for severe storms.

..Kerr.. 02/19/2026

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National Risk Overview

Thursday, February 19: TORNADO: 5%; HAIL: 15%; WIND: 15%
Friday, February 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: 5%; WIND: low
Saturday, February 21: ANY SEVERE: 5%
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

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