Severe Weather Outlook

show me my personal outlook →

Hayley here - Do you like ~~lofi music~~ whatever music Hayley put on and terrifyingly loud computer voices? Then stop by the 24/7 ish severe weather live stream!

* stats delayed and were probably not accurate to begin with

Outlook for Friday, February 27

Outlook Images

any severe potential too low

Note on Medium Range Outlooks

You are looking at an outlook that is part of the medium range forecast (the outlook for days 4-8). The most important thing to note is that lack of a risk does not mean zero risk. Generally speaking, confidence has to be pretty high for the Storm Prediction Center to have an outlook area this far into the future.

When no specific risk areas are shown, you might see one of these phrases:

Predictability Too Low: This means that severe storms might be possible, but forecasters aren't confident enough about where or when they might occur. Think of it as the models showing different possibilities, like pieces of a puzzle that haven't come together yet.
Potential Too Low: This means forecasters are fairly confident that widespread severe weather is NOT expected on that day. While isolated storms might still occur, the chance of reaching severe criteria across any given area is very low.

If you bookmark this page, it will continue to update with each new outlook that is issued.

Days Covered in this Outlook

Day 4	Monday, February 23	potential too low
Day 5	Tuesday, February 24	potential too low
Day 6	Wednesday, February 25	potential too low
Day 7	Thursday, February 26	potential too low
Day 8	Friday, February 27	potential too low

Detailed Outlook

ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL ACUS48 KWNS 200913 SPC AC 200913

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0313 AM CST Fri Feb 20 2026

Valid 231200Z - 281200Z

DISCUSSION

The forecast period will begin with a highly amplified upper-air pattern with a ridge over the Rockies and a deep trough over the eastern US. By the middle of the next week, this mid-level flow regime will transition to one characterized as broadly northwest flow from the Pacific Northwest toward the Southeast United States. This flow regime will help drive a mid-level trough/surface cold front southeast through the Plains toward the end of next week. However, limited moisture return ahead of this trough/cold front should temper any severe potential.

The front is expected to push south into at least the northern Gulf. This resulting cold/dry air intrusion into the northern Gulf will limit the potential for appreciable moisture return and subsequent thunderstorm/severe thunderstorm potential through the rest of the forecast period.

..Marsh.. 02/20/2026

CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT

National Risk Overview

Friday, February 20: TORNADO: low; HAIL: low; WIND: low
Saturday, February 21: TORNADO: 2%; HAIL: low; WIND: 5%
Sunday, February 22: ANY SEVERE: low
Monday, February 23: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Tuesday, February 24: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Wednesday, February 25: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Thursday, February 26: ANY SEVERE: potential too low
Friday, February 27: ANY SEVERE: potential too low

Your Severe Outlook

Hey, it looks like your location wasn't detected.

Drag the marker on the map and we'll show you the severe weather potential for a given location.

Hi, I'm Hayley. Did you know that I run this site out of my own pocket? So if you'd like to help out and you're already planning on buying something off of Amazon, why not use our Amazon Severe Weather Outlook link before you buy and we'll get a tiny portion of your purchase.

Severe Weather Outlook Amazon link →

About Severe Weather Outlook . com

SWO started as a spinoff project of wickedwx, but has since replaced the site.